Rocky
C. Shih, University of
Texas at San Antonio, U.S.A.
G.
Alberto Arroyo,
University of Texas at San Antonio, U.S.A.
This paper is presenting a Multi-attribute Decision Making
with Risks incorperated as a set of preferentially independent attributes for
the freight pipeline transportation system for the relief of congestion along
Urban corridors. The associated engineering and economic feasibility has
been studied in detail. The concept of
hauling freight in capsules through pipelines is treated as a new and reliable
alternative to congesting highways.
This paper will center on the decision analysis based on multi-attribute
utility assessment incorporating costs, lead time, human safety, environmental
and economic risks associated with this highly innovative mode of
transportation.
Risk
is defined as the function of the frequency for occurrence of an adverse event
and its hazardous consequences. Risk
is calculated by the magnitude of hazardous consequences of an event and by the
magnitude of the probable frequency of the event occurring. This principle is used to construct a model
of well-defined categories for both event frequency and hazardous consequences.
The approach to the risk
assessment of tube freight transport concept involves the following
phases:
1. Safety,
environmental, and economic issues identification
2. Scenario
construction
3. Event
tree and fault tree risk analysis
5. Risk
acceptability
§
The risk
acceptability is determined based on the comparison of the estimated risk
versus the risk referent which is derived from Revealed Preference concept.
The risk referent has incorporated the following considerations:
§
Voluntary
vs. involuntary risk-taker.
§
Controllability
by risk-taker.
§
Ordinary
vs. catastrophic of risk consequence.
§
Natural vs.
man-originated risk nature.
Using
multi-attribute utility assessment, the optimal design for the Freight Pipeline
Transportation System is determined
while the risks are incorporated as independent attributes together with the
concerns of costs, lead time, and environmental effects. It
is found that the Freight Pipeline
System consisting of low
pressure sustaining pipe, guided rails, and linear induction motor will be the
most cost-effective design for the fright transport. Also, it is determined that the Freight Pipeline System is
superior to all other alternatives of surface freight transportation systems,
including highway, railway and designated roadway lanes or waterways.